The automotive sector is witnessing a rapid shift towards electrification, with electric car sales surpassing 5.8 million units in the first half of 2023 across China, Europe, and the US. While electric cars are getting all the attention, other vehicle sectors are also presenting significant opportunities. IDTechEx, a market research firm, predicts that the global market for electric vehicles in land, sea, and air, excluding automotive, will be worth over US$1 trillion by 2044.
IDTechEx’s report, titled “Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea, and Air 2024-2044,” provides comprehensive insights into the historic performance and future forecasts of unit sales, battery demand, and market value for electric vehicle markets. This includes various types of vehicles such as cars, buses, vans, trucks, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, microcars, boats & ships, construction equipment, trains, and electric air taxis (eVTOL).
Commercial vehicles, including vans, trucks, and buses, are witnessing a surge in electrification, driven by global emission reduction goals. Electric buses, which gained early traction in China, are expected to see global sales surpass their 2016 peak by 2040, with growth fueled by replacements in China and greater adoption in Europe. Electrifying light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleets is proving beneficial for demonstrating green credentials and reducing total cost of ownership (TCO) for fleet operators.
Significant investment from companies like Tesla, Daimler, VW, and Volvo is driving the electrification of the truck market, while Toyota and Hyundai are focusing on fuel cell trucks. The electrification of truck fleets is expected to happen rapidly, with electric truck sales in 2022 already 2.2 times higher than in 2021.
In countries like China, India, and several Asian regions, two-wheelers and three-wheelers dominate the personal mobility market. These vehicles have typically been electrified using lead-acid batteries due to their lower battery size and power requirements. Electric microcars are also gaining popularity, especially in China, where their smaller range requirements and maneuverability in crowded cities make them an attractive transportation option.
The electric boating market has seen significant growth since the emergence of COVID-19, driven by increased interest and free time for leisure activities. While low-power outboard categories are more expensive than petrol equivalents, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for electric boats is favorable. However, high battery prices remain a barrier in higher power outboard or inboard categories. The market for larger commercial electric and hybrid vessels is expected to follow an exponential trajectory, particularly in downsizing oversized engines using batteries to power peak loads in short-sea vessels.
The construction industry is also witnessing an increasing focus on electrification due to climate change commitments and health and safety concerns. Companies like Volvo are setting their own targets for electrification of construction equipment to mitigate the impact of diesel emissions on worker health. The electric construction vehicles market is expected to be worth approximately US$154 billion by 2044, driven by the development of large electric vehicles designed from scratch.
The market for electric air taxis, also known as electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, is highly dependent on the certification process in each geographical market. While timelines for commercialization vary, the industry faces technological and funding challenges before mass production can be achieved.
Overall, electrification is growing in all the mentioned categories, and combining the markets for different electric vehicles, IDTechEx predicts a market worth just over US$1 trillion by 2044.
To learn more about IDTechEx’s report on electric vehicles, please visit their website.